Planting this flag. June 2, 2019 – I think Andrew Yang is the most likely candidate who can beat Trump. I don’t think he’s most likely to win the Dem Primary, but I think he’s most likely to beat Trump.

From what I can see today, if Yang runs against Trump in 2020, I would gladly vote for him. If any other candidate runs against Trump, I am not sure who I would vote for.

My reasoning:

  • Does not seem to play into identity politics. I think this awful tendency has infected many Dems and I know to many voters, this is automatically disqualifying. e.g,. Kristen Gillibrand
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  • I don’t think America is ready to elect a female Democratic President. There was all the talk about ‘white women voting for Trump in 2016’ and frankly, I don’t have great data to back this, but it’s my gut feeling. However, I think America is ready to elect a female Republic President. I could see Nikki Haley taking the ® nom in 2024.
  • Yang is willing to engage on both sides of the aisle. He is the first Dem I’ve ever seen go on Ben Shapiro. I’ve also seen him speak on Fox News. You have to take YT comments with a grain of salt but look at the comments on his Ben Shapiro and Laura Ingraham videos.
  • He’s an entrepreneur. I am tired of the professional political class and am encouraged by people with non-traditional backgrounds (i.e., those who have actually achieved things in life) entering politics. I said the same thing about Trump in 2015
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  • As one of the most upvoted comments on the Ben Shapiro video said: “Andrew Yang seems more like a person than a presidential candidate.” I’d agree. His Twitter feed seems genuinely real with what seems like actual dad jokes (not something being written by a staff). Other candidates need to manufacture humanity, whereas I think Yang is actually a human (which is maybe ironic since he spends the most time talking about robots). Examples of non-humans: Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, anything Beto does
  • He has the memes ON HIS SIDE. It seems like every other democratic candidate has the memes working against them (e.g., Beto is a Furry, Elizabeth Warren / Pocahontas, Creepy Joe) — whereas Yang has: “The opposite of Donald Trump is an Asian man who likes math” (source), #YangGang, the Freedom Dividend is itself very meme-able
  • On the same note as above, I think Andrew Yang is a very Internet-First candidate. He was the first announced candidate to go on Joe Rogan (fwiw, Tulsi Gabbard went on JRE once before announcing for President) and I am sure that by the time the campaign is done he will have gone on more podcasts than any other candidate. Could you ever see Beto or Kamala Harris on e.g., Sam Harris, Joe Rogan, David Rubin, etc. etc. Podcasts that have diverse political listeners (you may disagree with this). Even though 2016 election proved that you have to move to new communication channels to win, I think most 2020 Dems will still focus on legacy media like ‘Good Morning America’ and not give proper attention to niche podcasts.
  • Besides being articulate and human, Yang also has many in-depth policy proposals (site) and has frankly introduced the most unique and bold proposal I’ve ever seen a candidate introduce, the Freedom Dividend. I think once he hits the debate stage and starts getting more press that he’s a shoo-in.
  • Yang is willing to bring in groups other candidates might not touch e.g., crypto people (seriously, which other candidates could you see speaking at the Consensus Conference??)
  • Yang is the first candidate to truly talk about issues that will afflict us in the future. A 2nd Geoffrey Miller feature (source). Andrew Yang is thinking past 2050.
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